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Am I Crushing or is it Poker Variance? - Poker In a Box For example, Pete Poker might claim he’s 95% sure that his win-rate is 5 bb/100 plus or minus 0.5 bb/100. How many hands does Pete have to play to be 95% confident with such a tight margin of error? For this we need Pete’s standard deviation (which is also the square root of Mr. Poker’s variance).